Welcome to txscores.org. These risk calculators are intended for use by physicians to estimate the probability of graft failure within 5 years of a deceased-donor kidney transplant. Patients can also use the calculators; however, because some of the terminology may be unclear to laypeople, patients may benefit most by using the calculators with their physicians. The calculators were developed in a population of deceased-donor kidney transplant patients and are not intended to predict risk in living-donor transplant or multi-organ transplant patients.

The calculators were created to help physicians and patients better understand a particular patient’s likelihood of graft failure within 5 years of undergoing a deceased-donor kidney transplant. Characteristics specific to the patient and donor influence the likelihood that a kidney graft will survive or fail. Factors such as donor-recipient histocompatibility also predict kidney graft longevity, as do events that may occur early after transplant, such as acute rejection or delayed graft function. All of these factors are considered in the models.

The calculators were developed from a large group of kidney transplant patients, and measurements were taken at different times in follow-up. An in-depth explanation of the calculator development is available in the American Journal of Kidney Diseases (Kasiske BL, Israni AK, Snyder JJ, Skeans MA, Peng Y, Weinhandl ED. A simple tool to predict outcomes after kidney transplantation. Am J Kidney Dis. 2010.) Transplant failure is defined as graft failure with patient survival, or patient death with functioning graft. Graft survival means survival of both the patient and the transplanted kidney.

Three different calculators predict risk of kidney transplant failure within 5 years, based on information available pretransplant and at 7 days and 1 year posttransplant. Each uses information about the patient and the donor; additional information, such as length of cold ischemia time, acute rejection during the first year, or medication noncompliance, can be entered into the second two. By changing the values of these variables, physicians can see the effect of certain risk factors on patients’ probability of graft failure.

Each calculator is available as a “full” and an “abbreviated” model. The full models require entering more factors but give more precise estimates. The abbreviated models require entering fewer factors but give somewhat less precise estimates. If possible, the full models should be used.

Click here to view an example